Macro Newsletter

Warsh's Hawkish Debut Just Rewrote the Back-Half Playbook

Three shockwaves in two days rewrote the entire playbook—did you catch them all?

Warsh Steps Up, Peace Talk Heats Up

PPI Runs Hot Even as CPI Cools

One inflation gauge whispered relief. The other screamed something very different.

Hot Jobs, Hotter Oil, and the CPI Print That Could Break the Market

The market just snapped a nine-week winning streak in the ugliest way possible. Semis down 10%, gold gutted, oil past $97. And the real test hasn't even hit yet. Wednesday's CPI print could either rescue the bulls or confirm what the bond market is already screaming.

Jobs, Services, and Sticky Prices

ADP hiring holds up, services expand, Europe eyes inflation, and Australia slows.

Slow Growth, Hot Prices, and a Fed Fight

GDP gets clipped, China stalls, jobless claims tick up, and Powell defends the Fed.

Bad Vibes, Big Multiples, and a Housing Freeze

Stocks look strong, consumers feel awful, housing stalls, and fiscal risks lurk under the rally.

Bad Vibes, High Rates, and a Barbecue Bill

Sentiment hits a record low, mortgage rates climb, food costs bite, and trade routes shift.

Homes Hold, China Slows, and the World Gets Pricier

Home deals rise, China slows, retail cools, and global growth takes another energy hit.

Consumers Cooled, Claims Crept, and Oil Still Runs the Show

Retail sales slow, claims rise, oil squeezes consumers, and U.K. growth gets tested.

Retail Pinch, Export Pop, and a Fed Handoff

Inflation jumps, Europe’s shoppers wobble, China exports rebound, and Warsh nears the Fed.

Jobs Pop, Gas Bites, and China Ships

Hiring beats, gas squeezes wallets, China exports rebound, and tariffs hit another legal wall.