Macro Newsletter

The Trade That Broke the Ceasefire Just Reset the Fed's Playbook

Oil surged, gold cracked, and the Fed just quietly changed its tune. Here's what shifted overnight.

Warsh Rewrites the Playbook, Rate Hike Odds Sextuple in a Week

The July rate hike odds just jumped from 6% to 36% in a week. Here's what changed.

A 40-Year Currency Break Is About to Reroute Global Flows

A 40-year currency low, a Tokyo ambush plan, and why your dollar-heavy book is about to feel it.

The Oil Shock Nobody Wanted a Sequel To

Oil's back above $69, the Fed pivot just flipped, and Wall Street's playbook for July is changing fast.

Banks Get the Green Light While Housing Buckles

Banks just got cleared for $50B in buybacks. Housing hit a six-year low. The PCE print could decide

Hormuz, Hawks, and a Housing Market Running on Fumes

Beneath the calm surface of all-time highs, something strange is brewing.

Warsh's Hawkish Debut Just Rewrote the Back-Half Playbook

Three shockwaves in two days rewrote the entire playbook—did you catch them all?

Warsh Steps Up, Peace Talk Heats Up

PPI Runs Hot Even as CPI Cools

One inflation gauge whispered relief. The other screamed something very different.

Hot Jobs, Hotter Oil, and the CPI Print That Could Break the Market

The market just snapped a nine-week winning streak in the ugliest way possible. Semis down 10%, gold gutted, oil past $97. And the real test hasn't even hit yet. Wednesday's CPI print could either rescue the bulls or confirm what the bond market is already screaming.

Jobs, Services, and Sticky Prices

ADP hiring holds up, services expand, Europe eyes inflation, and Australia slows.

Slow Growth, Hot Prices, and a Fed Fight

GDP gets clipped, China stalls, jobless claims tick up, and Powell defends the Fed.