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The Dovish Reset Is Here and Friday's Jobs Print Could Confirm It

The Dovish Reset Is Here and Friday's Jobs Print Could Confirm It

A weak payrolls number Friday flips the script on rates, the dollar, and duration.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
The Peace Dividend Rally Has Repriced Every Asset Class

The Peace Dividend Rally Has Repriced Every Asset Class

Oil's breaking. The 10-year's rolling over. Stocks just printed records. Time to position both sides.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
Yen Intervention, Tariff Pass-Through, and a Jobs Print That Sets September in Motion

Yen Intervention, Tariff Pass-Through, and a Jobs Print That Sets September in Motion

A dollar breakdown, an AI wobble, and one Friday number that decides the Fed's next move.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
The Metal Market Is Telling You Something the Fed Won't

The Metal Market Is Telling You Something the Fed Won't

Three ancient warning signs are flashing red while Wall Street throws a party. Who blinks first?

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
Long Bonds, Loud Hawks, and a Burning Tanker

Long Bonds, Loud Hawks, and a Burning Tanker

One dissenter just broke ranks in a way nobody at the central bank saw coming.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
When The AI Trade Blinks, Capital Has To Go Somewhere

When The AI Trade Blinks, Capital Has To Go Somewhere

Chips just cracked. Oil dumped. Fed hits today, and four sectors are already vacuuming up the flows.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
The Week Warsh Can't Duck

The Week Warsh Can't Duck

Rate bets are shifting, a shipping lane is still frozen, and gold cleared a level the Street didn't see coming this fast.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
The Three-Headed Setup That's Breaking the Everything Rally

The Three-Headed Setup That's Breaking the Everything Rally

Three things just broke the buy-the-dip trade. Crude is going higher again, the 10-year is sniffing 5%, and hyperscaler cash flow is finally cracking. Still positioned like it's January? You're late.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
Four Forces Converging Before the Fed's Biggest Call of the Year

Four Forces Converging Before the Fed's Biggest Call of the Year

The Fed's boxed in, two chokepoints are offline, and the dollar's winning everything except gold.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
The Stagflation Trade Building Under a Runaway AI Rally

The Stagflation Trade Building Under a Runaway AI Rally

Oil's in the mid-$80s. Gold's north of $4,100. Yields are camped around 4.60%. And the Nasdaq won't quit.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
When the Rally Meets the Real World

When the Rally Meets the Real World

Three shockwaves are converging this week—and most portfolios aren't positioned for any of them.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
The Barrel Is Back in Charge of Your Portfolio

The Barrel Is Back in Charge of Your Portfolio

Four charts Wall Street can't stop watching—and one is flashing a warning few expect.

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