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Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
The $100 Barrel Is Forcing Warsh's Hand

The $100 Barrel Is Forcing Warsh's Hand

Crude just kissed triple digits. Hike odds are climbing. Your book needs to catch up. Fast.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
The Rate Cut Just Vanished, and CPI Friday Decides the Quarter

The Rate Cut Just Vanished, and CPI Friday Decides the Quarter

Hike odds flipped, Hormuz traffic cratered, and the yen is bleeding into your ETFs.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
The AI Buildout Is Being Financed On Your Yield Curve

The AI Buildout Is Being Financed On Your Yield Curve

The AI buildout is being financed in the bond market, and the bill lands on the duration you own.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
The Fault Lines Cracking Before the Fed's Biggest Call

The Fault Lines Cracking Before the Fed's Biggest Call

A yen warning, a global long-end break, and a split FOMC all land before the September decision.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
How Oil Just Put a Rate Hike Back on the Table

How Oil Just Put a Rate Hike Back on the Table

Two weeks ago, this Fed meeting was a snoozer. Now it's the most consequential in three years.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
Energy Leads and Cyclicals Bleed as the Rotation Tells You Who Is De-Risking

Energy Leads and Cyclicals Bleed as the Rotation Tells You Who Is De-Risking

Oil is back in charge, the dollar is bid, and markets are splitting under the surface.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
Stagflation Is Back, and Your 60/40 Is Not Built For It

Stagflation Is Back, and Your 60/40 Is Not Built For It

Bonds are breaking. Crude won't quit. Here is how to reposition before the Fed meets.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
Hawkish Warsh Hands the Wheel to Cyclicals, Crude, and the Yen Carry Trade

Hawkish Warsh Hands the Wheel to Cyclicals, Crude, and the Yen Carry Trade

A hawkish Fed pivot just rewired duration, crude risk, and the software trade at once.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
The Commodity Move That's Bigger Than Gold

The Commodity Move That's Bigger Than Gold

Gold got the headlines. But the real scarcity trade is playing out across the whole periodic table.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
Ottawa Loads the Tariff Hammer While Bessent Reloads the Buyback Bazooka

Ottawa Loads the Tariff Hammer While Bessent Reloads the Buyback Bazooka

Canada's tariff clock ticks, Treasury reloads the long end, and payrolls decide Fed week.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
The Consumer Is Splitting In Two, And Your Portfolio Should Reflect It

The Consumer Is Splitting In Two, And Your Portfolio Should Reflect It

Under the AI melt-up, half the country is out of cash. Here's the split trade.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
Tariffs, a Treasury Bid, and a Jackson Hole Setup Rewrote The Week

Tariffs, a Treasury Bid, and a Jackson Hole Setup Rewrote The Week

Three shifts landed this week that reprice duration, autos and crude before Friday's keynote.

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