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Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
Warsh's First Hike Just Repriced Every Duration Trade You Own

Warsh's First Hike Just Repriced Every Duration Trade You Own

The insurance-cut era is over and your rate-sensitive book is already paying for it.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
The Grain Rally Is Real: The Farm Balance Sheet Is Not

The Grain Rally Is Real: The Farm Balance Sheet Is Not

Grain prices are at 52-week highs, and the farm still cannot pay its bills. That gap is your trade.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
Oil Spiked, The Curve Compressed, And Now Warsh Owns Wednesday Afternoon

Oil Spiked, The Curve Compressed, And Now Warsh Owns Wednesday Afternoon

Brent near triple digits and a flattening curve just rewrote your Fed week playbook.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
The Bond Market Is Now Underwriting The AI Boom

The Bond Market Is Now Underwriting The AI Boom

The AI boom stopped being an equity story this year. It is a credit story now.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
The Three Forces Repricing Your Portfolio Before Wednesday

The Three Forces Repricing Your Portfolio Before Wednesday

Three forces are squeezing your portfolio this week, and none of them are about oil.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
The Two-Lane Economy Most Portfolios Are Missing

The Two-Lane Economy Most Portfolios Are Missing

One guy just drove a Ferrari off the lot. The other maxed out Klarna on back-to-school shoes. Both are moving markets.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
Is Your Portfolio Ready For A Hot CPI On Friday?

Is Your Portfolio Ready For A Hot CPI On Friday?

Long bonds are broken, crude is bid, and one AI trade is doing all the work.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
The $100 Barrel Is Forcing Warsh's Hand

The $100 Barrel Is Forcing Warsh's Hand

Crude just kissed triple digits. Hike odds are climbing. Your book needs to catch up. Fast.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
The Rate Cut Just Vanished, and CPI Friday Decides the Quarter

The Rate Cut Just Vanished, and CPI Friday Decides the Quarter

Hike odds flipped, Hormuz traffic cratered, and the yen is bleeding into your ETFs.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
The AI Buildout Is Being Financed On Your Yield Curve

The AI Buildout Is Being Financed On Your Yield Curve

The AI buildout is being financed in the bond market, and the bill lands on the duration you own.

Macro NewsletterMacro Newsletter
The Fault Lines Cracking Before the Fed's Biggest Call

The Fault Lines Cracking Before the Fed's Biggest Call

A yen warning, a global long-end break, and a split FOMC all land before the September decision.

Macro AnalysisMacro Analysis
How Oil Just Put a Rate Hike Back on the Table

How Oil Just Put a Rate Hike Back on the Table

Two weeks ago, this Fed meeting was a snoozer. Now it's the most consequential in three years.

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